July 2023 Monthly Recap

Talking Points

  • Inflation dropped from 4% to 3%, the 12th consecutive monthly decline as it continued to trend in the right direction

  • The labor market added 209,000 jobs, slightly below the expected 225,000, though unemployement fell to 3.6%

  • Consumer confidence jumped to 71.6, its highest level since October 2021, largely attributable to slowing inflation

  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.81% to 3.97% while the Fed hiked rates 25 bps as expected

  • Corporate credit spreads fell to the lowest levels since October 2021, indicating a declining risk of default 

Market Health Indicator*

Market Data
market health indicator monthly index performance

*The Market Health Indicator is a monthly indicator created in September 2021 that is designed to measure market health on a scale of 0 - 100, analyzing various market segments such as economics, technicals, and volatility using data back to January of 2000. Higher scores indicate healthier market conditions.

  

Fun Facts

Started From the Bottom, Now We're Here

  • The National Association of Theatre Owners reported there were more than 200,000 tickets sold for same-day screenings of Barbie and Oppenheimer (i.e. Barbenheimer)

  • Competitive art was a sport in the Summer Olympics from 1912 to 1948 

  • No number before 1,000 contains the letter "A" when spelled out

  • The original name for the hastag sign (or pound sign) is octothorpe, with "octo" referring to the eight points in the # symbol 

And one more for good luck.

That’s what the Fed told markets as they raised rates another 0.25% in July following the brief pause in June, bring rates up to the 5.25% - 5.50% range.

This was the 11th rate hike since March 2022 when rates were effectively zero. Now, rates are at the highest levels since the beginning of 2001.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did leave the door open for another potential hike later this year, saying the central bank will make data-driven decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis going forward. However, it was also noted inflation has moderated since last year’s highs, leaving room for a more permanent pause on the horizon.

Markets are pricing in that we’ve already reached the peak rate in the cycle, placing just a 17% probability on another increase in the September 20th Fed meeting.

To view the rest of the Market Update, click here.